Case Study

Opportunity assessment to inform investment plans

Opportunity assessment to inform investment plans
Cello Health Insight


A European based Pharmaceutical company



To assess whether it was worth investing in the development and commercialization of a new device to differentiate the client’s brand from competitors. Could the device slow down anticipated share erosion and win new patients?

Within a broader global study involving physician and patient qualitative research, the key objectives for the quantitative phase were to:
Identify how receptive physicians would be to the proposed device
Understand what the key benefits of the device are perceived to be, and what the motivators would be for the physician to recommend it to patients
Capture robust measures around the impact of the device on patient share, to inform forecasting inputs that will be used to determine if the client should invest
Identify which patient groups would present the best opportunity





The quantitative phase consisted of an online survey with rheumatologists, capturing their current caseload and treatment practices, patient share allocation, and anticipated treatment practices at different time points as the market landscape evolves. We also explored the impact of the introduction of the new device in terms of physicians’ reactions, revisiting anticipated treatment practices at different time points assuming the new device would be available. Then we calibrated anticipated uptake, to account for overstatement, and analysis by patient type


We were able to deliver a clear presentation of potential erosion of brand share over time, and show the positive impact of a new device on slowing this erosion. We identified the likely sources of business for the new device. The results were presented in an Excel-based tool which showed a summary of forecasting inputs and allowed the client to drill down into the detail to build a robust forecasting platform upon which to make decisions

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