Case Study

Understanding potential future patient share

Understanding potential future patient share
Cello Health Insight
QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH

THE CLIENT

A European based Pharmaceutical company

THE BUSINESS CHALLENGE

To understand the potential future patient share for a specific product within a new therapy class in a specialty medicine therapy. How much share would the new class take from the current standard of care and how well would our client’s new product do within that new class? To what extent would the brand’s share be dependent on its order of entry into the market, within this new class?

There were several challenges in answering our client’s business question: There are not yet any drugs of this class in the market – so physicians’ understanding of this class of agents will be limited. There are several new drugs in the class in development, which could reach market in a similar timeframe to our client’s drug. Finally, the standard of care has been dominant in this market for the last 15 years and there may be considerable resistance to change and potential for institutional inertia.

OUR APPROACH

The quantitative phase consisted of an online survey with hospital-based physicians across the EU5 markets, capturing their current caseload and treatment practices, patient share allocation. Using this information as a basis we then asked physicians to consider a range of future market scenarios using a novel conjoint approach.

In this conjoint the future market scenario was built up in three steps with physicians first seeing just one new brand and completing a share allocation, then adding a second new brand and finally a third new brand. By the time the scenario was complete, respondents were allocating between the current market standard-of-care and three alternative new brands. The brand profiles tested we’re defined based on a conjoint variable grid, which included order of entry (1st, 2nd or 3rd) to allow us to ultimately simulate any combination of three products based on this grid. We also calibrated the results to adjust for overstatement.
In order to make it easier for our respondents to complete these multiple allocation exercises we produced live graphs in the survey which updated as the respondent entered their responses. This meant it was easy for respondents to see how their answers compared to their earlier caseload allocations, improving their speed and accuracy of response.


THE RESULT

We delivered a clear presentation showing both the future preference share for the new treatment class and for our client’s specific brand. The conjoint results also revealed how order of entry would impact this share and which differentiating features would drive share for their brand. In addition to the presentation slide deck we provided a simulator allowing multiple potential future scenarios to be modelled with results filtered by country. This was securely deployed online in ‘R’, which allowed us to maintain and administer the simulator remotely. It is device neutral allowing our client to access it from PC, Mac or Mobile. The client was able to update their forecasts and model alternative future upside scenarios.

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